Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
